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Power
is the ability to make things happen.
The political system is so unwieldy, so rife
with nuance, so studded with procedural
obstacles, so vulnerable to popular whim, that
power brokers are essential to the process. The
25 people on our list of the Texans with the
most political clout at the state level owe
their status to some combination of four assets
that translate into power: money, institutional
knowledge, relationships, and ideas.
This is the third such list that TEXAS MONTHLY
has compiled in our 32-year history, but it
bears little relation to the other two. The
nature of political power has changed radically
since our first compilation of power brokers, in
1976. At that time, power was almost exclusively
the preserve of big business (banking, oil,
Texas-based corporations and the law firms that
served them) and big cities (nineteen of the
twenty names on the list called Houston or
Dallas home). The first list is replete with
Texas icons: Leon Jaworski, the Watergate
prosecutor; George R. Brown, the pipeline and
construction magnate and LBJ benefactor; former
governor John Connally, LBJ’s protégé; Robert
Strauss, the lawyer and political kingmaker.
By the time we compiled our second list, in
1987, advancing age and declining energy prices
had wiped out the old guard, leaving a power
vacuum that money and clout alone could not
fill. The new prototypes of Texas power were
Ross Perot and Henry Cisneros, whose strength
was not just riches and political influence but
also ideas. Perot spearheaded the 1984 reform of
the state’s public education system, which
included the radical notion that passing in
school was more important than passing in
football, while Cisneros, as mayor of San
Antonio, built a statewide following by
stimulating the local economy and proving the
truth of the old adage that a rising tide lifts
all boats.
Today, political power is largely the province
of operatives, not principals. The 1976 list was
full of elder statesmen; the new list has none.
Both of the previous lists were packed with
household names; the new list has just one, Kay
Bailey Hutchison, and she’s a special case: Her
importance depends on whether she runs for
governor and, if she is to make the list in
future years, whether she wins. Not a single
corporate leader appears on our list.
The amateur kingmakers of yesterday have been
replaced by the political professionals of
today. With Republicans in charge at the
Capitol, business has more clout than it had in
the nineties, but it’s too diverse to speak with
a single voice, and its primary concerns are in
Washington, not Austin. When companies’
interests are at risk, they hire operatives,
just like everybody else. No can-do
entrepreneurs walk the halls of the Capitol, as
Perot once did. The members of today’s power
club no longer call Houston and Dallas home.
Most live and work in Austin.
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THE REALITY CHECK
Mike Baselice, 44, Austin
IF WE COULD SNAP our fingers, all pollsters would disappear and
every politician would do what is right instead of what is popular.
So much for fantasyland. Polling is here to stay, even if snafus
like the exit polls in the 2004 presidential race discredit the
profession. In any case, Republican pollster Mike Baselice isn’t the
problem.
His reputation and his power rest on the uncanny accuracy of his
numbers. Take a look at these percentages Baselice predicted in the
2002 election. For governor, Baselice’s projection: Perry 57.4,
Sanchez 40.2. Actual result: Perry 57.8, Sanchez 39.96. In the
attorney general’s race, Baselice told Greg Abbott that he’d win by
15.8 percentage points and made a mock apology when the actual
margin was “only” 15.64.
Texas Republicans aren’t the only ones who rely on him. When the
California Chamber of Commerce wanted to know which Republican had
the best chance of being elected governor if Democrat Gray Davis was
recalled (we could have told them for free), they asked Baselice,
whose poll showed you-know-who far ahead of his GOP rivals;
Baselice’s follow-up poll was the first to show Ah-nuld leading
Democrat Cruz Bustamante. In a party that is chock-full of ambitious
politicians seeking higher office, his reality check separates the
contenders from the pretenders.
Baselice & Associates, Inc.
4131 Spicewood
Springs Road, Suite O-2
Austin, Texas 78759
(512) 345-9720 *
Fax: (512) 345-9740
mail@baselice.com
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